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“Should I send my SAT scores?”
“How do I self-report my grades?”
“Is my college essay too cliche?”
“What exactly does Restrictive Early Action mean?”
I spend most of my days as a high school counselor mired in the details of college admission. And, while I often lament that it should be a more simple and humane experience for students, I love being in the trenches with young people imagining a bright future. At the same time, my work necessitates a clear understanding of trends in admission, so that I can effectively guide my students. This year, very little seems clear and it can be difficult to assume this balcony view from the pit. Therefore, as 2020 slips into hindsight, I asked my colleagues who lead admission offices to provide perspective and offer insight into the pulse of the field. Here is what they shared:
Fluctuating Application Numbers
To show the unpredictability in this admission cycle, Stefanie Niles, vice president for enrollment and communications at Ohio Wesleyan University shares an overview of their application numbers throughout the past few months. She says, “at our first report in mid-October we were 26% down in applications versus last year on that date. We gained some ground in the next couple of weeks and lowered that deficit to 18% in early November. Upon our December 1 Early Action deadline, we were about 3% ahead of last year’s outcome at that point in time.” She adds, “based on our own results and November data from the Common App, it appears that applicant pools are, at very least, forming more slowly than what has been considered normal.” As for specific demographics, Niles explains, “while we are up in most of Ohio, we are down in our two primary, urban markets. Some of this is amplified by a slight decline in our student of color numbers, though we have also made significant gains with this pool versus where we started in mid-October. Our international numbers were slow until mid-November, and now they are up by over 40% versus last year at this time.” Dickinson College is seeing similar increases. Catherine McDonald Davenport, vice president for enrollment and dean of admissions, says “I was prepared to see a drop in international applicants given COVID, the election, and exchange rates, but they are running ahead of last year.” She adds, “while we are seeing an increase in applicants from our ‘closer to home’ markets (PA, MD, NJ, and VA) we have also seen an increase in more distant markets (CA, FL, ME, NC) where we have regional staff doing great work.”
At the University of Denver, Todd Rinehart, Vice Chancellor for Enrollment says, “our overall applications have been running about 3% ahead of last year, but the interesting dynamic is that our applications for our Early rounds are down, and the increase in applications is for Regular Decision.” He adds, “our theory is that students are wanting to submit another term of grades, and are still hoping to submit test scores.” Meanwhile, at Cornell University, Jonathan Burdick, vice provost for enrollment, says “applications have increased substantially.”
Unsurprisingly, the trends in application numbers depend on who you talk to. The Common App reported in November that, compared to last year at this time, the number of students applying to college was down 8% among their returning member colleges. For students who are eligible for fee waivers, the year-to-year decrease was even more pronounced at 16%. Just over two weeks later, on December 2 the total number of applications to returning Common App member schools had increased 6% from last year. Unique applicants to returning members were down 2%, so even though less students are applying, they are submitting applications to more schools. Meanwhile, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, enrollment at two-year public institutions is down 9.5% from last year with almost a 19% drop in first-time freshmen.
While some of these are alarming statistics, as Robert Frost reminds us, there are “miles to go before [we] sleep”. Admission leaders hope the new year and regular decision deadlines will see a rebound in applications, as some colleges have already experienced toward the end of this year. There are indications that those who are applying to college are doing so on a delayed timeline, but also with more intention and discernment, which could be positive for enrollment yield and students finding an appropriate match.
W. Kent Barnds, executive vice president of external relations at Augustana College, says “our pool is smaller this year, but it seems to be completing tasks more promptly and is responsive to outreach.” Falone Serna, vice president for enrollment management at Whittier College, agrees, saying, “we are trending behind in applications submitted to date, but the applications are completing at a much higher rate than last year which suggests a more intentional applicant pool for us.”
Eric Nichols, vice president for enrollment management at Loyola University Maryland unpacks these trends even further, saying “we are running behind this year and this seems to be a slower forming pool.” He explains that typically about 70% of Loyola’s total applicant pool applies Early Action, but this year that won’t be the case. Nichols says “more students are choosing to apply later and I think COVID has a lot to do with that.” He adds, “we also have a record percentage of applicants from in-state. We saw this trend with our Fall 2020 enrollments and it’s carried forward to the Fall 2021 applicant pool. The pandemic has students considering options closer to home.”
To show the unpredictability in this admission cycle, Stefanie Niles, vice president for enrollment and communications at Ohio Wesleyan University shares an overview of their application numbers throughout the past few months. She says, “at our first report in mid-October we were 26% down in applications versus last year on that date. We gained some ground in the next couple of weeks and lowered that deficit to 18% in early November. Upon our December 1 Early Action deadline, we were about 3% ahead of last year’s outcome at that point in time.” She adds, “based on our own results and November data from the Common App, it appears that applicant pools are, at very least, forming more slowly than what has been considered normal.” As for specific demographics, Niles explains, “while we are up in most of Ohio, we are down in our two primary, urban markets. Some of this is amplified by a slight decline in our student of color numbers, though we have also made significant gains with this pool versus where we started in mid-October. Our international numbers were slow until mid-November, and now they are up by over 40% versus last year at this time.” Dickinson College is seeing similar increases. Catherine McDonald Davenport, vice president for enrollment and dean of admissions, says “I was prepared to see a drop in international applicants given COVID, the election, and exchange rates, but they are running ahead of last year.” She adds, “while we are seeing an increase in applicants from our ‘closer to home’ markets (PA, MD, NJ, and VA) we have also seen an increase in more distant markets (CA, FL, ME, NC) where we have regional staff doing great work.”
At the University of Denver, Todd Rinehart, Vice Chancellor for Enrollment says, “our overall applications have been running about 3% ahead of last year, but the interesting dynamic is that our applications for our Early rounds are down, and the increase in applications is for Regular Decision.” He adds, “our theory is that students are wanting to submit another term of grades, and are still hoping to submit test scores.” Meanwhile, at Cornell University, Jonathan Burdick, vice provost for enrollment, says “applications have increased substantially.”
The Divide Grows
As many feared, the pandemic has disproportionately impacted underrepresented students and those who would be the first generation in their family to attend college. Andy Borst, director of undergraduate admissions at the University of Illinois at Urbana/Champaign, says, “Applications from first-generation, fee waiver eligible, and historically underrepresented backgrounds are trailing previous years. Counselors and community-based advisors tell us that these students are still planning to apply before our final deadline, but they say that distance learning has made it difficult for both counselors and universities to connect with these students.” He highlights the unsurprising disparity between access to resources, adding, “the equity gap is likely to get wider.”
Augustana College’s Barnds agrees, saying, “we are concerned about application trends among African-American, Latinx, and rural applicants, which are all well behind previous cycles. It is certainly reinforcing some of what we are hearing in the media about the struggles of students who come from backgrounds, where college-readiness and college-going are even further behind this year.” He adds, “I also will observe that this cohort of students seems to be very motivated by deadlines and urgency. I have a feeling that this cycle is likely to be defined by those who apply before February 1 and those who apply after February 1. There is likely going to be a very high level of engagement of new entrants to the application process after February 1, when some students realize that they are behind.” Barnds emphasizes, “we have a responsibility to reassure them that they are not behind and they can still do a thoughtful search even with later engagement.”
Jody Glassman, director of university admissions at Florida International University, points out why this is true. She says, “this is a year of hesitation and pause. College applications and the associated process isn’t the priority. There are a lot of young people who have transitioned into positions of being a caregiver, part-time employee, or home chef along with full-time student; filling out a college application has taken longer or has taken a backseat.” She adds, “there is a general sense of disconnectedness; it’s not just in the colleges, but in the high schools too.” Glassman explains, “one school counselor told me it was like she had two different senior classes, the students who were in face-to-face school and those who were in virtual school. Those who are taking classes through virtual school are missing out on some of the benefits that they would normally receive during the school day. That ability to pop-in and talk to the college counselor, the ‘quick question’, the morning announcements, or LED sign. It’s rampant across education.”
Ken Anselment, vice president for enrollment and communications at Lawrence University says, “I know many in our profession have been thinking (hoping?) that this is just a delay, and that eventually we will see activity among first-generation and low-income students pick up, but the ticking of the clock is growing ever louder.” He adds, “I am worried that the impact of the pandemic upon this cohort of students’ opportunities will echo for decades if we do not extend our application processes well beyond the typical timelines that we’ve used—even beyond what we did in 2020.”
Testing
Another undeniable trend of this admission cycle—which has been often reported on in the past nine months—is the role of standardized testing in college admission. As a growing number of colleges and universities adopted test-optional policies, both schools that traditionally didn’t require tests, and those new to the game, saw significant increases in “non-submitters”. Falone Serna, vice president for enrollment management at Whittier College, explains “there is a significantly higher number of test-optional applicants in our pool this year. Since adopting our test-optional policy a few years ago the number of applicants applying without test scores had already been increasing annually, but this fall there was a definite spike.” He adds, “a good number of our test-optional applicants applied with the intention of sending test scores, but later requested that we change them to test-optional (usually due to test cancellations).” Serna says, “I hope this means that students have become more trusting that they won’t be disadvantaged by applying without scores to test-optional institutions because there seemed to be some skepticism around that.”
Jeff Schiffman, director of admission at Tulane University agrees, saying, “a huge chunk of our applicant pool applied without test scores. Many applicants noted they signed up for 3 or 4 or 5 administrations of the SAT/ACT and each one got canceled.” At Loyola Maryland, Nichols says “those who are applying test-optional are way up. In a typical year, we see 65%-75% of the applicant pool submit scores (we’ve been test-optional since 2010). This year it’s currently only 35%.” At the University of Denver, Rinehart reports that in their applicant pool, “57% are applying test-optional compared to 25% last year.” He says, “the large percentage of students applying test-optional is completely understandable given the limited testing opportunities, “ adding, “the shift isn’t a change in student behavior or an intentional strategy on their part, but rather the simple fact that they don’t have scores to submit.”
At Georgia Tech, director of undergraduate admission, Rick Clark says that a much bigger percentage of underrepresented and first-generation students requested that their application be reviewed without test scores. Students from these backgrounds also represented a larger portion of the students admitted through the Georgia-exclusive Early Action round released last week. At Boston College, only 42% of the students who were accepted Early Decision had submitted test scores. One can only hope for reasons of equity, access, and achievement pressure, that these trends continue beyond this admission cycle.
Anxiety
Needless to say, the pandemic has contributed to stress and anxiety throughout the world. Unfortunately, it has also amplified what was already the often overwhelming experience of applying to college, fraught with worry for some students, parents, and educators. Aaron Basko, vice president for enrollment management at Sweet Briar College pinpoints some of this concern, saying, “there is a lot of anxiety over visiting and financial aid. Students are feeling like they have to make decisions with less information.” He adds, “we are hearing that students are behind in the application process and that the normal counseling dynamic that typically takes place has been badly disrupted. We’ve been trying to do whatever we can to provide good general guidance to the students we are working with, while also looking for ways to reduce the overall stress students are feeling.”
Tulane’s Schiffman raises another fear that students and those who support them have about diminishing spots for admission. He says, “from a number of panels I have served on, I’ve almost universally heard that the rumor that colleges allowed for massive groups of freshmen to defer a year/take a gap year (and thereby leave this current senior class in an even more competitive place) was completely unfounded.” He emphasizes, “I did not hear a single university admission officer note that because of gap years, this current applicant pool would face tighter admission standards.”
Amy Cembor, senior associate dean of admission at Providence College observes that “students are nervous and stressed about how they will compare, understandably.” However, she points out that students have also “had time to reflect and take stock in their activities, family, community, and future.” She adds, “We underestimate the resiliency of young people—they have pushed through with grace and determination.” Anthony E. Jones, associate provost and assistant vice-president of enrollment management at Howard University reminds us that students’ concerns are greater than the application experience. He says, “admission counselors are reporting increased anxiety among the prospect pool due to COVID, but there is also the uncertainty students feel about whether they will have an on-campus experience in the fall.” He adds, “more than the benefit of the degree, students are attracted to college for the collegial connection to their peers. With this in question, I believe many are weighing the option whether to exercise a gap year hoping the pandemic will subside enough during that time to ensure an on-campus start to their college life the following year.”
As we close out the “year that was” and move into 2021, we will continue to have more data and insight about admission trends. Applicants and admission leaders will continue to face great uncertainty, but perhaps the fall provides a window into what is to come.